Defence
spending in the People’s Republic of China has increased dramatically in recent
years. Discuss whether this development poses a security threat to the United
States of America. Should the United States increase its defence spending
accordingly? Why or why not?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The field of political science
deals, in large part, with the concern of governments to defend their nation
and interests from external attack. It is said that since 2001, the People’s
Republic of China has increased its military spending by nearly 200 percent to
an estimated USD 119 billion in 2010 (The Economist Online 2011). Subsequent reports
state that in 2011, a further 12.7 percent increment was announced (BBC News Online 2011). As is only natural,
military accumulation of such large scale is often construed by the global
community as a threatening move. As a result, it is often the case that
governments of various countries discuss responses to the development in terms
of a possible increase in their own defence budget. This essay deals with the
response of the United States government in light of this development, and
argues that an increase in defence spending on the part of the White House
would be unnecessary given the two countries’ bilateral relations, using
international relations theories where appropriate.
The United States and China share a
complex political relationship in today’s age. In the decades after their
collaboration against the Soviet Union during the Cold War (1946-1991), the
political atmosphere between the two countries has evolved in numerous ways. Both
governments are similarly committed to world issues such as the fight against
terrorism (Kan 2010), and prevention of
nuclear proliferation (Nuclear Threat Initiative
1985).
However, the bilateral relations are tested by issues of human rights
violations (2009 Human Rights Report:
China (includes Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macau) 2010) since China achieved
its newfound economic distinction. Moreover, a dominant issue that remains
unsolved is that of their varying positions regarding the legitimacy of the
Taiwanese government.
As
a result of this complex relationship, and the long political history between
the two nations, the United States is very likely to be concerned about the
possible security threat that this arms accumulation poses to itself as well as
the world community. As a result, it may choose to increase its own military
spending, which, upon a similar reaction from China, could result in an arms race
similar to that of the Cold War, or could desist from reacting similarly for
the reasons detailed in this essay.
There
are two popular theories in international relations today that support the
opinion that the United States need not increase its defence spending. Liberalism, a theory put forth by Joseph Nye
and Robert Keohane, proposes that the growth of post-War international trade
has been an essential factor in achieving the relative world peace observed
since 1945 (Jackson and Sørensen 2007). The globalisation
called for by the Bretton Woods system
brought about a strong economic interdependence between the liberal economies
of the world, and the wave of democratisation in this period since the end of
World War II aided in the achievement of free trade. This economic mutuality,
liberalisation argues, has helped in achieving warm peace between nations.
China’s
capitalist economic reforms initiated in 1978,
through the opening up of the economy to foreign investment, privatisation of
industries and decrease of protectionist tariffs increased its degree of
interdependence with other countries. As a result of the US’ economic dominance
and the size of the Chinese nation and population, US-China economic mutuality
became important for both nations. Through cheap labour and manufacturing
productivity in China, and educational and professional opportunities in the
US, to mention very few of a myriad factors, the two economies have become
greatly interdependent in recent years. Chinese exports to US have increased by
a factor of almost 80 since 1984, and US exports to China have increased by a
factor of more than 10 in the same period (Lum and Nanto 2007, 41. Table A2).
Moreover, USA is China’s greatest export destination (The US-China
Business Council 2010, 1. Table 8), and China is the
United States’ third greatest export destination (Department of Commerce - United
States of America 2011). Therefore, both these countries
heavily rely on each other’s import markets. Furthermore, as of May 2011, China
was the largest single holder of US public debt (Department of the
Treasury/Federal Reserve Board 2011). In addition to
these factors, there are other complex and multiple transnational ties between
the two. Higher education, multinational companies, and even basketball bind
the two countries in immeasurable ways.
The two countries are hence deeply
interlinked and are genuine friends in today’s global context. It is evident
that the two countries have benefited greatly from trade liberalisation and the
mutual proliferation of multinational companies. As a result, neither nation
would jeopardise their standing in the world by aggressing the other.
Social
constructivism, another theory, also believes in the possibility of warm peace
between nations. It proposes that although international anarchy may exist,
with no body governing the actions of nations, it does not necessarily entail
the existence of wars. As Alexander Wendt, the best-known advocate of this theory
famously put it, “anarchy is what states make of it” (Wendt 1992). Therefore, it is
not the fact that anarchy exists that causes conflict, but that states have
constructed negative associations through their actions, causing mistrust
between nations. However, through creating positive meaning to one another,
states can create trust and conflicts will cease to exist.
The
middle stages of the Cold War saw China’s opposition to the USSR on ideological
grounds, based on diverging interpretations of Marxism. As a result of the
stalemate that the Cold War was edging towards, the US reached out to China for
its aid. Through this association, China first constructed a positive
association for US out of the goodwill they had generated. In the years since
this collaboration, this positive meaning that China has projected to the world
community has strengthened. Its move away from stubborn communism towards
capitalism (explained in great detail previously) has also caused the world to
treat it with greater trust. Moreover, China has begun to portray itself as a
responsible global power, contributing to almost two percent of the UN
Peacekeeping force, as compared to the US’ 0.1 percent (United Nations Peacekeeping
2011).
The US and China also cooperate on various levels such as the US-China WTO
trade agreement (The White House Office of
Public Liaison 1999), which ensured strong anti-dumping
measures and anti-protectionist agreements. Moreover, in recent years, several
dialogues have been held between the countries to cooperate on counter-terrorism
measures through the US-China Counterterrorism sub-dialogue (U.S. Department of State
2009).
In
all these ways, the two countries are linked in multiple mutually-beneficial
ways, both economically and politically, as supported by the two theories. As a
result of this, warm peace exists between the two countries, and even if
military superiority were achieved by either country, it would not be willing
to attack the other.
However,
the challenges put forth by Realism cannot be dismissed. Realism, a theory that
suggests that the selfish power-maximising nature of human beings, combined
with the inevitable absence of central authority at an international level, is
the cause for war and conflict. As a
result, proponents of realism suggest that military build-up should be of
paramount importance. This not only means that China’s military expenditure hike
could be a realist move to maximise power, but also that it could be construed
by the US as such, causing a similar reaction on its part.
This is a plausible interpretation,
owing to various truths about the two countries’ relationship. Firstly, being
the two largest economies in the world, the two countries are directly vying
for the top spot. Moreover, they have greatly differing ideologies, with the US
highly liberal and democratic, while China holds on to communist beliefs,
albeit incorporating elements of capitalism. The two countries also have
several conflicts of interest. For one, the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 is a
major point of conflict. While the US officially subscribes to the Chinese
position that Taiwan is a part of China, it continues to sell defensive
military equipment to Taiwan. As a result, the Chinese feel that the US has
neglected “the basic standards of international relations” (Embassy of the People's
Republic of China in the United States of America 2004, 1). Another issue that
has strained relations is the US-operated Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan. Once
set up to aid in American efforts during the Afghan War, it is extant even
today, much to the displeasure of China, with which it shares a border. Owing
to these issues, it is possible that China’s increase in military expenditure
could indeed be in an attempt to increase its power in the world, in which
case, US, being a hegemon in the world today, would increase its own spending
to retain that status.
While
it is true that US-China relations perhaps do not reflect the warmth of the
peace between the US and Canada, giving bearing to the realist claims, I feel
that it is a slight abstraction to state that there is complete anarchy on the
international stage. In the years since
its inception, the United Nations has become the foremost international body for
the governance of actions of various countries. Along with subsidiary
organisations such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO), International
Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, UN Peacekeeping Force and International
Telecommunication Union (ITU), it is able to impose restrictions on countries in
response to major breaches of the standards of international relations. These
could come in the form of trade embargos, monetary sanctions or refusal of
financial aid from IMF and World Bank, as well as telecommunication
restrictions. The UN bodies are able to wield these powers due to strong
socially constructed notions of peace and cooperation at an international
level, therefore garnering support from its members to impose these restrictions.
Finally,
there are myriad possible explanations for China’s large-scale increase in
defence expenditure. One possibility is that China may be attempting to
increase its security, not only in terms of defence, but in terms of
negotiating power. With the US’ obvious superiority in economy and military, it
holds great negotiating power within the UN, NATO, and other international
bodies, as well as amongst other nations. It may be that China, as a
fast-growing world power, is attempting to achieve the same. Another equally
probable explanation is that it is simply keeping in pace with its economic
growth, both in the sense that more funds are available to them in these years
of economic prosperity, as well as the fact that increases in standard of
living reflect higher pay to armed-forces employees. In closing, while the
wisdom of the liberalist and constructivist arguments recommend that the US
does not increase its spending accordingly, it is still probable that given the
US’ hegemony in the world today, and its interest in retaining that position,
it will do so regardless.
Bibliography
2009 Human Rights
Report: China (includes Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macau). Country Report
on Human Rights Practices, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, U.S.
Department of State, U.S. Department of State, 2010.
BBC News Online. "China says it will boost its defence
budget in 2011." BBC News. March 4, 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12631357 (accessed November 1, 2011).
Department of Commerce - United States of America.
"Top U.S. Trade Partners." International Trade Administration.
August 2011.
http://trade.gov/mas/ian/build/groups/public/@tg_ian/documents/webcontent/tg_ian_003364.pdf
(accessed November 1, 2011).
Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board.
"Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities." U.S. Department
of the Treasury. October 18, 2011.
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
(accessed November 1, 2011).
Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United
States of America. China opposes US Congress' resolution on Taiwan.
July 19, 2004. http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/xw/t143465.htm (accessed
November 1, 2011).
Jackson, Robert, and Georg Sørensen. Introduction to
International Relations: Theories and Approaches. Third. New York: Oxford
University Press, 2007.
Kan, Shirley A. U.S.-China Counterterrorism Cooperation:
Issues for U.S. Policy. Report for Congress, Congressional Research
Service, Federation of American Scientists, Federation of American
Scientists, 2010, 37.
Lum, Thomas, and Dick K. Nanto. China's Trade with the
United States and the World. Congress Report, Congressional Research
Service, Federation of American Scientists, Federation of American
Scientists, 2007, 45.
Nuclear Threat Initiative. "1985 US-China Nuclear
Cooperation Agreement." Nuclear Threat Initiative. 1985.
http://www.nti.org/db/china/ncaorg.htm (accessed November 1, 2011).
The Economist Online. "Defence costs: The biggest
military spenders." The Economist Online. June 8, 2011.
http://www.economist.com/node/21518831 (accessed November 1, 2011).
The US-China Business Council. "US-China Trade
Statistics and China's World Trade Statistics." The US-China Business
Council. 2010. https://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html
(accessed November 1, 2011).
The White House Office of Public Liaison. "Summary of
U.S.-China Bilateral WTO Agreement." The US-China Business Council.
November 17, 1999. https://www.uschina.org/public/991115a.html (accessed
November 1, 2011).
U.S. Department of State. U.S.-China Counterterrorism
Sub-Dialogue. Media Note, Office of the Spokesman, U.S. Department of
State, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 2009.
United Nations Peacekeeping. "Monthly Summary of
Contributions (Police, Military Experts on Mission and Troops)." United
Nations Peacekeeping. September 30, 2011.
http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/contributors/2011/sept11_1.pdf (accessed
November 1, 2011).
Wendt, Alexander. "Anarchy is what states make of it:
the social construction of power politics." International
Organization (The MIT Press) 46, No. 2, no. Spring, 1992 (1992): 391-425.